Application of Events in Predicting the Future

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Application of Events in Predicting the FutureTaleb argues that initially, people believed that all swans were white before the discovery of Australia and the belief was backed up by scientific evidence (Taleb n.p). In this regard, the writer implies that observation and experience are significant aspects of our learning and the fragility of knowledge. As such, a single observation can overturn a conviction resulting from the confirmatory sighting. According to Taleb, a small percentage of black swans reveals almost everything from religions, historical dynamics, the success of ideas, and various elements of our personal lives. Due to the increasing effects of black swans on the industrial revolution, expectations started accelerating as the world gradually became complicated. As such, it has become insignificant to study and predict occurrences over the years contrary to the previous periods where it was very easy to predict the subsequent events.
The application of science has rendered predictability and social science inconsequential which had been over centuries operating under false beliefs. Taleb argues that the problems have had tremendous impacts due to the application of the science of uncertainty to the real world (Taleb n.p). Many people fail to see the bigger picture which makes it difficult to predict the future since life is a cumulative effect of various factors. A comparison of various life events in our life proves that it is very difficult to predict the future.

Our life for instance and the choices we have made is a perfect indication that things do not unfold as planned. Therefore, the inability to predict reveals the fact that we are not the course of the past historical events even when we act as if we can predict events based on historical experiences. Studying the general aspect of events rather than the specifics would eradicate the errors in our forecasts as proved by past occurrences.

Works Cited
Taleb, Nassim. “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” The New York Times. 22 April 2007, www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html. Accessed 7 Sept 2018.