Using GIS Spatial Analysis and Statistical Models to Predict the Occurrence of Coyote specie

Occurrence of Coyote Species in an Urban or Human Transformed Area of Calgary
Canada
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Background
Coyotes are indigenously North American animals that are currently spread out in entirely all terrestrial habitats that support their prey. They belong to the genre canis latrans and are members of the larger wild dog family comprising of jackals, dholes, wolves and foxes. Over the past, coyotes have resided in the wildland preying on mammals such as the white-tailed deer. In the rural environs, they have been reportedly attacking the sheep hence bringing a depredation of the industry and raising questions over their management strategies. However, as the population in the urban areas becomes concentrated, the wild land is being succeeded from the animals to peri-urban and urban settlements, a process that is bound to create conflicts between the animals and humans (Young and Malpeli, nd). Coyotes are very wary of humans and avoid them whenever possible, but with the infringement of their habitats, their occurrence in the urban and suburban areas in Calgary is currently very common. Due to their capacity to adapt to a range of landscapes, they present a perfect starting point for assessing the future wildlife management and their coexistence within the urban environment.
The more than one million years existence and survival of the coyote species rests on their high plasticity and resilience a character that has helped them repossess their habitats within Calgary city.

Of late, they are turning out to be urban-adapted carnivores. They have an assorted diet making it possible for them to thrive in any form of complex habitat matrix. As more land is cleared for the urban development without Calgary, the animals are forced to go further into the rural setups. However, this has not been well received by the species that have retaliated by acclimatizing to the changes. Owing to their disturbance and elimination of the primary source of food, coyotes have been forced to come out in the open and scramble for food with the other wild dogs within the cities. According to Alexander and Quinn (2012), the animals are reportedly interacting fairly with the people. They have formed what is now regarded as the ‘urban coyote’ hence representing what can be referred as the urban wildlife.
Coyotes are presently ubiquitous across the continent despite having been only dominant in North American. According to Young and Malpeli, they can be grouped into four classes depending on the social conditions. These are den-breeders, transients, den-non-breeders, and disperses. In most cases, they are organized in a pack where each has a pair of the breeders referred to as the alpha individuals. The non-breeders are offspring of the dominant pair that did not leave the pack after reaching maturity. On the other hand, disperses display food affinity and interspecific competition making them prevalent in the forest edges that has an abundant of refuge and prey density. And although they are regarded as a weaker class of the wild dogs, they have at times fought the wolves excluding them where they have numbers.
Calgary’s green spaces and forested areas provide an excellent habitat for coyotes. Although coyotes are predators, they are also dodgy feeders and will eat just about anything, including mammals, birds, insects, and human foods. The result of the study conducted on 484 scats showed that vegetation and small mammals were the most frequent occurrence in coyote scat samples. The common food sources were small rodents, then herbaceous and crabapples. They were also indicated to depend on anthropogenic food samples especially garbage, domestic cats and dogs (Lukasik and Alexander, 2012). This is favored by the ecological structure of most regions within Calgary. Arbour Lake is a small urban ranch consisting of vast green spaces and grasslands. The inherent residential sector and bordering shopping centers present enough garbage for sustaining the species. The Edworthy Park has vegetation of different types and a source of herbaceous samples fed on by the coyotes. Further, the area holds a large leash of dogs that are part of the prey for the coyotes. Another area where coyotes are indicated to be prevalent is the Fish Creek Park in southern Calgary. The city contains deciduous and coniferous forests that encourage leisure activities. Apart from carrying a perfect coverage for coyotes, the large number of people frequenting the park provides enough garbage for the species. This attracts rodents and other smaller animals preying on the garbage and hence a perfect site for the coyotes.
Coyotes were asserted to have been restricted to the wild regions in Northern America before European settlement. In present day coyotes have been known to migrate from the Great Plains of North America past Central America towards the Arctic. They now also thrive in parts of Canada, Mexico, parts of Alaska, and presently in Calgary. Studies have shown that, compared to other animals in the wild dogs family, coyotes are more adaptable to changing environments. They can survive in almost all habitats as long as they can access food and there is a constant supply of the prey whether there are domestic or wild animals. Two major factors determine their habitat preference and the wide range of expansion presently. The first is the exploratory activities by humans and the ecological disturbances majorly through the process of urbanization, commercial and agricultural activities. The second factor is the extermination of the wolf population after 1900 from most parts of North America. The wolves being the bigger carnivores are unwelcomed in the urban ecosystems. Their existence is regarded as a hazard and attended to immediately by the wildlife agencies. This leaves the coyote more human-tolerant and adaptable due to their smaller size and likening to the dogs. This has reduced the competitive pressures that restricted coyotes to the Great Plains making them move towards the exterior regions and eventually across the cities. Further, they are considered as keystone predators where they modify the population of smaller species of predators by hunting them. According to Watts and Alexander (2011), they have helped maintain the diversity of breeding birds and control the geese and white-tailed deer. Some researchers have reported that coyotes are often situated outside the high wolf thriving areas.
The diets for the larger wild dog family overlap are making them forage on different vegetation zones. Being opportunistic feeders and generalist predators makes the coyotes avoid wolf pack territories deliberately. Avoidance is the most likely reason coyotes do not intermingle or cross wolf territory and not a divergence in habitat preference and diet. It is the same reason that they have not migrated to other wild environments after the encroachment of their habitat in Calgary but rather adopted the urban lifestyle. It is reported that a high degree of overlap occurs primarily from the scavenging activities of coyotes, particularly when wolves killed the preys.
Over the recent past, coyotes have been increasingly established in numbers within the urban areas across Canada. The larger population is found in areas with more garbage hence representing the largest carnivore near people. Within urban and suburban areas of southern Alberta, especially Calgary, coyotes have interactively adapted to residential neighborhoods, parks, and green spaces without any fear of humans. These notable behavioral changes are associated with the feeding routine but more so because predator control is no longer practiced in these areas. Coyotes will thrive in areas where food, water, and shelter are abundant, all who are plentiful in Calgary. Once attached to the urban or suburban center, they prey on the rodents, birds, rabbits, cats, and small dogs that live in residential locales. However, recent reports have indicated their increase in Calgary hence reducing the food access. Reports and studies on human attacks and domestic pets revealed a predictable pattern of change in their behavior in these settings. This means that the ‘urban coyote’ populations are transforming to not paying attention to humans in their search for food. Some have become openly aggressive towards humans, cases that have been reported in Calgary and the other area in North America and particularly in urban setups. The populations at higher risk are the children, the elderly, and pets. According to Lukasik and Alexander (2011), attacks are becoming more frequent with time, where more than 150 of such attacks have been reported during the past one decade in Calgary. One such attack occurred in Calgary in 2005 where a child was bitten by the coyote hence sparking concerns over the safety of the children’s with the animals around.
Information on coyotes in urban areas and its ensuing relationships in humans, domestic pets, and the environment have been limited to what can be gleaned from media reports and perhaps where complaints about attack occur (Alexander and Quinn, 2012). There is even a larger issue of the likely contact between the infected coyotes and the domestic animals especially the pets and humans. According to the research conducted by Watts, Lukasik, Fortin, and Alexander (2015) on the parasite prevalence in the fecal samples collected from cities in Calgary, there were proofs of harmful parasites with some subpopulations with similar sample results frequenting the dining sites and across the rural-urban regions. Some of the reported threats are cases of E. multilocularis parasite, West Nile virus, and Lyme disease. According to Watts and Alexander (2012), coyotes in the urban areas of Canada are sources of various viral pathogens such as canine distemper virus, rabies, and canine adenovirus all which poses health risks for people and their pets. They assert that “public risks may also be presented by gastrointestinal parasites, many eggs of which are deposited in feces in core urban environments.” The research conducted indicated the diversity of more than ten parasite species in the fecal samples with the highest viral load in the Big Hill Springs, Sandy Cross, Providence Ranch and Horse Creek Grid road rural areas. The urban areas that represented larger stake were Stanley Park, Inglewood Wildlands, Fish Creek and Nose Hill Park.
There has not been a conclusive report associating the coyotes with infections in other towns across the US thus indicating restlessness in the issue. This results from the notion that coyotes only thrive within the wild regions and hence previous studies have only embarked on such. The partnerships among the stakeholders such as ecologists, public health scientists, and veterinarians have been broken making the understanding of the urban ecology minimal. As a result, there has been limited knowledge as to how they assume habitat in the urban settings. The lack of extensive research on the prospective development could be associated with the difficulties in conducting such research activities in the urban regions and lack of reason or pressing need for such studies over the past. Gehrt (2007) indicate that their threat to human life is primarily very low and this should not warrant any panic. However, it does not consider the hazards that could be brought by the predators if people were not alerted and educated on how to take caution and live cohesively with the dogs. Scientists and environmentalists believe that the attacks on humans are turning predatory in nature. This has been pegged on the course of recent attacks and especially the death of a teenage Canadian from coyote attack thus raising the question of just how dangerous the coyotes can be if actions are not taken to avert the tragedies while avoiding the extermination of the species.
According to Dodge and Kashian (2013), “land cover around evidence points included more wooded land cover than expected in suburban areas, suggesting the importance of tree cover for coyote occupancy, and more open space and wooded land cover than expected in urban areas, highlighting the Coyotes’ avoidance of densely populated areas.” However, this is no longer the case as the animals have already adapted to the urban landscapes thus becoming the leading carnivores in the major metropolitan towns. Although research indicates that they traverse throughout the grasslands at night to avoid interacting with humans, this is bound to change as they become acquainted with the human habitats especially with the move towards a 24-hour economy. Competition for the limited habitat will then gradually force them into marginal habitats, or they learn to thrive amongst humans. This could have a double impact. First, the animals may become extinct after people rise against them hence killing some. Secondly, they might assume more aggressive traits for accessing food and avoiding humans. This could result in more attacks especially among the children. Therefore, learning more about the ecology of the species just like any other forms of hazard can help avert coyote-human conflicts and promote coexistence in the Calgary. Understanding the activities and actions at the time of coyote intervention is vital in pinpointing the potential cause and designing better management response. This entails all areas of interfaces such as food conditioning and proximity to the habitats.
Study Objectives
The research focuses on; investigating the fragmented urban landscape as a habitat by the coyotes, understanding the ecology of the species, and conserving them in the face of rapid urbanization.
Significance of Study
The Coyotes have some profound impacts on the surroundings. Generally, coyotes are carnivores that exist dispersed throughout Calgary city. Their range of diet is not limited to meat only thus posing a greater threat to the inhabitants of the city both on matters of human security and that of their domestic animals. According to (Watts, Lukasik, Fortin, & Alexander, 2015), the samples collected across Calgary contained nematodes, cestodes, protozoa, and trematodes. According to Alexander and Quinn (2011), the animals have been termed as “brazen, wiley, mangy, nuisance, wild and vicious.” Current reports have touched on cases where coyotes have attacked and even killed people. Therefore, understanding the ecological habituation and coexistence of coyotes with humans within and without the urban centers is vital. A better knowledge of their environmental and geographic distributions is critical for making wildlife conservation and management decisions. Current human activities have significantly impacted the landscape, variations that have permanently impacted the management of the wild dogs. It is worthy designing better wildlife habitat relationship models that are more proficient and practical than the costly and unfeasible landscape sampling method that was adopted in the 1970’s. Habitat-modeling techniques should create large-scale predictions of coyote habitat but be cost-effective and productive. During the modeling, it should be apparent that coyotes do not only do harm but are also beneficial in some ways like balancing the ecosystem by helping control the populations of rodent and pest species such as rats, mice, and squirrels in public areas like golf courses and cemeteries. Habitat suitability modeling allows a quick but consistent prediction of the distribution of the wildlife especially in areas where their spaces have been limited. However, these decisions must be made immediately and conservatively to avoid creating more problems with the animals and making them extinct. Further, understanding the activity patterns habitat selection and food source all play a major role in ensuring that the interrelationship is safe.

References
Alexander, S. & Quinn, M. (2011). The portrayal of Interactions Between Humans and Coyotes (Canis latrans): Content Analysis of Canadian Print Media (1998-2010). Cities And The Environment, 4(1), 1-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.15365/cate.4172012
Alexander, S. & Quinn, M. (2012). Coyote (Canis latrans) Interactions With Humans and Pets Reported in the Canadian Print Media (1995–2010). Human Dimensions Of Wildlife, 16(5), 345-359. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10871209.2011.599050
Dodge, W. & Kashian, D. (2013). Recent Distribution of Coyotes Across an Urban Landscape in Southeastern Michigan. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, 4(2), 377-385. http://dx.doi.org/10.3996/062013-jfwm-040
Gehrt, S. (2007). ECOLOGY OF COYOTES IN URBAN LANDSCAPES. Dundee: Ohio State University. Retrieved from http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/icwdm_wdmconfproc
Lukasik, V. & Alexander, S. (2011). Human-Coyote Interactions in Calgary, Alberta. Human Dimensions of Wildlife, 16, 114-127. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10871209.2011.54401 4
Lukasik, V. & Alexander, S. (2012). Spatial and Temporal Variation of Coyote (Canis latrans) Diet in Calgary, Alberta. Cities and The Environment, 4(1), 1-25. http://dx.doi.org/10. 15365/cate.4182011
Watts, A. & Alexander, S. (2011). Community Variation of Gastrointestinal Parasites Found in Urban and Rural Coyotes (Canis latrans) of Calgary, Alberta. Cities And The Environment, 4(1), 1-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.15365/cate.41112012
Watts, A., Lukasik, V., Fortin, M., & Alexander, S. (2015). Urbanization, Grassland, and Diet Influence Coyote (Canis latrans) Parasitism Structure. Ecohealth, 12(4), 645-659. http:// dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10393-015-1040-5
Young, S. & Malpeli, K. (n.d). Coyote Ecology and Conflicts with Humans across the UrbanWildland Gradient: Identifying the Potential Impacts of Changing Land Use (pp. 1-15).