Imagining a post-carbon Ireland Challenges and oppertunities in peak-oil

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Challenges and opportunities with peak oil
Peak oil is a situation when oil reaches the maximum level of production (Forfás, 2006). The situation is likely to bring challenges as well as opportunities to Ireland which depends on oil for transport.
Overall Growth % Average annual growth % Quantity (ktoe) Shares %
1990 – 2016 2005 – 2016 ‘05 – ‘16 ‘10 – ‘16 2016 2005 2016 2005 2016
Fossil Fuels (Total) 47.2 -12.7 -1.2 -0.7 3.3 10,322 9,013 81.9 77.2
Coal -65.7 -40.3 -4.6 -3.9 -7.5 484 289 3.8 2.5
Peat -73.9 -27.8 -2.9 -4.1 -1.8 274 198 2.2 1.7
Oil 70.6 -17.8 -1.8 -1.0 3.9 8,196 6,740 65.0 57.7
Natural Gas 213.6 30.7 2.5 1.9 3.7 1,367 1,786 10.8 15.3
Renewables 294.9 122.6 7.5 4.8 1.5 191 426 1.5 3.6
Wastes (Non-Renewable) – – – 30.2 -5.2 0 42 0.0 0.4
Combustible Fuels (Total) 51.1 -10.4 -1.0 -0.5 3.1 10,505 9,412 83.3 80.6
Electricity 115.5 5.0 0.4 0.1 2.0 2,094 2,199 16.6 18.8
Total 61.1 -7.4 -0.7 -0.3 3.0 12,607 11,680 Total Weather Corrected 57.2 -8.1 -0.8 0.4 4.2 12,646 11,618 Table 1: Energy growth over the years
Oil peaking shall result to increase oil prices affecting other economies. This means spending less on importing other goods from those countries though they benefit from high oil prices hence destabilizing the world economy. These oil importing economies imbalance trade due to spending more on oil imports than what they are exporting (Chapter 28: Peak oil).
The individual fuel growth rates, quantities, and shares are shown in the chart below.

Energy requirement peaked in 2008 and has fallen by 12% since then. (1990 -2016)
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Legend: Coal-peat-oil-natural gas-Renewables- Waste-Net electricity-import/export

The inconvenience associated with the oil peak has opened new opportunities like producing electricity instead of oil. Similarly, treaties that target to reduce overdependence of oil and the establishment of alternative sources of energy which discourage carbon dioxide emission is important (Cummarsaide, Fuinnimh & Nadurtha). The graph below shows the relationship between energy requirement by Ireland and corresponding carbon dioxide emitted from 2005 to 2015.
Graph: Index of Gross Domestic Product, Total Primary Energy Requirement (TPER) and Energy-Related CO2 (2005-2015).
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150
140
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YELLOW: GDP (CSO) GREEN:
TPER RED:
RED:
Energy CO₂ PURPLE:
Modified GNI (current prices) L Fig. 1 energy sources survey in Ireland
The variations seen are due to adjustments in the economic structure and an advancement in energy efficiency (Anon, 2017).
References
Anon, 2017. ENERGY IN IRELAND 1990-2016, Sustainable Energy Authority in Ireland. Available at https://www.seai.ie/resources/publications/Energy-in-Ireland-1990-2016-Full-report.pdfChapter 28: Peak Oil pg 206-210 and Chapter 30: Social Limits Of Growth pg 216-220. Available at https://play.google.com/books/reader?id=ARxWBQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&pg=GBS.PT205Cummarsaide, R., Fuinnimh & Nadurtha, A., Ireland’s Transition to a Low Carbon Energy Future. Available at: https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/energy/publications/Documents/2/Energy%20White%20Paper%20-%20Dec%202015.pdf
Forfás I. 2006.A Baseline Assessment of Ireland’s Oil Dependence: Key Policy Considerations. Available at http://ecolo.org/documents/documents_in_english/Ireland-oil-report-06.pdf