The Rhyme Of History M.Macmillan

The rhyme of history m.Macmillan

As Macmillan confirms, one of the great mysteries of the Great War is and will be the reasons, and events that exploded it, that is, if there was a single guilty, or a specific event that triggered this conflict, or there were several. Were the expansionist anxious of Guillermo II’s Germany? Was the murder of the archduke the true drop that filled the glass? Or just an excuse to validate Austria-Hungary attacks to Serbia and try to end the Slavo of the Balkans problem. Or it was simply an inevitable conflict that had been setting for a long time and that no one knew how to see the signs of it until it was too late, then all the actors involved responsible for it being. France hurt after the isolation by the European concert, Great Britain and its voluntary inactivity in European politics, Russia, its expansionist eagerness and its Paneslavista feeling, they were also guilty of one of the most lethal conflicts in History of Humanity of Humanity. It is too innocent and even dangerous to think that only one of the great European powers was responsible.

If we take a look back, the dismissal, necessarily voluntary, by Otto von Bismarck was a drastic change in Germany’s external policies, which was previously the search for peace, cooperation and understanding that a hegemonic empire in Europe onlyIt would cause fear and tension between the empires, became an expansionist eagerness with Guillermo II and the search for such hegemony for Germany and its allies.

The understanding of the multipolar system that Bismarck had was very clear, if we joined all countries in the cooperation and defense of peace, especially after having left the Napoleonic wars, hence the isolation that was made to France,There would be no need on the part of any of the countries to transform into a threat to the rest by seeking hegemony in Europe .

Guillermo II’s ascension implies the dismissal of Foreign Minister Bismarck, radically changing Prussian foreign policy, which guaranteed European peace. With the creation of its new hegemonic policy, the Weltpolitik, the German leaders threaten the safety of the other European nations, almost automatically causing the alliance of these, giving way to a new European multipolar system.

This new German political system has two main consequences, the departure of Russia, which does not renew the commitment of neutrality and a growing confrontation with Great Britain caused by economic competition, both in Europe and in the extra -European colonies and the expansion of naval plansGermans, assuming a direct attack on English naval hegemony.

The next issue that Macmillan is raised is about what we know today as globalization, is it really a modern phenomenon? Or something already known by the European Society of the 19th and 20th centuries. His answer is clear, there was already a history of the so -called globalization at that time, and very similar to what we know now:

“Globalization – which we usually consider a modern phenomenon, born of multinational investment and company expansion, Internet growth and mass migration – also characterized that time, thanks to the many changes that began to occur in the world. The means of transport (the train, the steam ship) and the media (the phone, the telegraph, the radio) allowed access to the most remote regions on the planet. So now, waves of immigrants made their way to foreign lands: Indians to the Caribbean and Africa, Japanese and Chinese to North America and millions of Europeans to the New World and Oceania." 

At that time, the constant changes that were preceded in society, technological advances and commercial relations between countries, made it impossible to think that a great conventional war would favor anyone, and less in Europe, feeling that we also found in the current system. Unfortunately, we also find the negative effects of such globalization, represented in the rise of ultraconservative parties such as American Tea Party or the British National Party, formed mainly by citizens who see as the world they were used to inevitably changes, along with theDisappearance of employment and security. Throughout history for these groups it has always been convenient to seek an scapegoat, a common enemy to be able to attack without being judged by it, what in the S.XIX and s.XX was anti -Semitism, we currently find Muslims, the reasons are different, but the end is the same. And making a very successful note, globalism has a rather paradoxical consequence:

“The advocation of extreme localism and innatism, pushing people to seek

shelter within small human groups, welcoming at first sight although ideologically monolithic."

The next point to highlight by Macmillan is the influence that the character and charism of the different political leaders in the outbreak of the Great War.

As everyone knows, the relations between the monarchs and leaders of the different countries in Europe was not even good, although much of them shared blood, such as the Káiser Guillermo II and King Eduardo VII, who was his uncle, and thewhich he referred as "the Archi-Intrigator and Methomentod of Europe" and the same thing happened, since Eduardo saw Guillermo as a spoiled, arrogant and believed insolent. Of course, the fact that the only maritime power capable of dealing with the German fleet was that of El País governed by his uncle, whom he hated, can even be said that this fact influenced the creation of said fleet. Like the feeling Russian Slavist bread of a weakened monarch like Tsar Nicolás II, it would lead to warm policies regarding the control of Balkans with the Hungarian Austro Threat in Serbia, or the Revanchist Ansia of the French President after almost a century ofIsolation caused by Germany, so the conclusion is clear, the character of these leaders leuk had a direct influence on the outbreak of conflicts throughout Europe.

If we try to talk about the similarities between the prelude to the Great War and the current Sistma, to speak only of the English German rivalry is to fall short, unfortunately, this rivalry has a current clear reference, and it is the rivalry between and.AND.OR.U and China and their constant economic and commercial and commercial growth, which instead of loving suspicions, have been increasing, if we take into account the fact that China continuously favors countries such as North Korea, the main American enemy, or theconstant support to Taiwan by American, does not help the creation of trust between the two. The competence of both in the Pacific reminds a lot of competition lived years ago by England and Germany, and Chinese predisposition to turn its economic power in military suggests the American response to this provocation.

“We already attest to an arms race in that ocean and The Wall Street Journal has published documented information according to which the Pentagon would be preparing war plans against China, just in case." 

We also find a lookout similar between current conflicts in the Middle East and the Poweway of the Balkans in the S.XX, history does not tend to be repeated exactly, but the similar ones are undoubted.AND.OR.U, Russia, Turkey or will go to a greater conflict to protect their interests, businesses and customers in the area.

“Will Russia conclude that he must support Syria in the same way as he decided to support Serbia, his client, or as Germany he was compelled to support the Austrohungal Empire? Hopefully Moscow exerts greater control over the Damascus government than the one he exercised over on Serbia in 1914." 

Although we must take into account a factor that did not exist before, the nuclear weapons, which served as a deterrent during the cold war, but would it work again? According to MacMillan the big difference, now they are the owners of these weapons, Pakistan, North Korea, possibly Iran, it is possible that the deterrence no longer works as it did before and we find ourselves with tensions similar to the dusty of the Balkans, but with weaponsof mass destruction, thus ensuring a last conflict, capable of destroying humanity as we know it.

"As in 1914, there are changes in the way of making war whose relevance we are just beginning to understand.".