AMDM DB2

AMDM-DB2
Most passengers boarding an airplane are apprehensive regarding the possibility of an air crash. Hence, different airliners and policy makers of aviation safety always try to reduce such apprehensions across the prospective fliers. One such measure is to increase the awareness of such stakeholders on aviation safety by highlighting the probability or possibility of dying due to an airplane crash. An article published in the Elite Daily by Haltiwanger (2015) highlighted that the probability of dying in an airplane crash is one out of every 5.4 million passengers. The author considered the past incidences of air crashes within a specific timeframe and divided the same by the number of flight journeys.
In another article, Barrabi (2014) reported that the risk of dying due to an airline crash is one out every 11 million passengers. The probability of dying due to an airplane crash as reported by Barrabi (2014) differed significantly from that reported by Haltiwanger (2015). This is because the timeframe considered by Haltiwanger (2015) was one year more than that of Barrabi (2014) and during this period there were two airplane crashes that increased the probability of dying. In fact, the probability of dying due an airplane crash as reported by Haltiwanger (2015) was almost twice than that of Barrabi (2014). Both these articles endorsed on the safety of an aircraft and tried to reduce the apprehension of prospective customers. The authors of both these articles tried to convince the prospective readers regarding aviation safety.

They compared the probability of dying due to an airplane crash with road traffic accidents and dying due to lightning. Both articles highlighted that the probability of dying due to an airplane crash was much lower than the probability of dying due to road traffic accidents.
3. The probability was estimated from the number of incidences (number of deaths due to airplane crash) that occurred out of the possible number of events (number of total passengers who flied) during a specific period.
4. A comparison of both the reports suggests that the odds of dying in an airplane accident as reported by Haltiwanger (2015) were twice than that reported by Barrabi (2014). Such findings suggest that simplistic measures of probability are insufficient to predict the risk of dying from an airplane crash. These findings suggest that measures of probability are often unreliable in predicting or forecasting the likely occurrence of an event. This is because different factors might confound the risk of dying due to an airline crash. Such factors include the sector of a flight, the length of the runways, the risk of terrorism, and weather conditions. Hence, a logistic regression model involving such variables would have been more effective to predict the risk or probability of dying due to an airline crash. Logistic regression models could accommodate the influence of different confounding factors on the likely occurrence of an event. In such equations, number of deaths due to an airplane crash should be considered as the dependent variable while the sector of a flight, the length of the runways, the risk of terrorism, and weather conditions are considered as the independent variables.
5. In any business, different confounding factors or unforeseen situations could influence the productivity of a business unit. Hence, managers, policy-makers, and decision-makers should consider different factors before predicting the productivity of a business operation. Such analysis would also help to modify or reduce the risks associated with a specific business operation.
References
Haltiwanger, J (2015). The Odds Of A Plane Crash Are One In 11 Million, Yet You’re Still Afraid, Elite Daily, published 25th March, 2015 Accessed 15th January, 2018, URL: https://www.elitedaily.com/news/world/people-terrified-plane-crashes-even-though-rare/977885Barrabi, T (2014). After Air Algerie AH5017 Incident, A Statistical Look At The Probability And Chances of Dying In A Plane Crash, IBT published 24h August, 2014 Accessed 15th January, 2018, URL: http://www.ibtimes.com/after-air-algerie-ah5017-incident-statistical-look-probability-chances-dying-plane-crash-1638206