Data analysis on fertility rate in singapore

Assessment of Fertility Rates in Singaporean Population
Name of the Student
Professor’s Name
Assessment of Fertility Rates in Singaporean Population
Background
Fertility rate or total fertility rate is defined as the number of children, which would be born to a woman over her entire lifetime (Norwood, 2009). Population explosion is one of the important concerns in Asian and Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore (Douglas & Richard, 2007). The increased population may have a negative impact on the economic profile of various countries (Audrey, 1985). It will decrease the per capita GDP and may lead to issues like unemployment. Therefore, increased fertility rate is a global concern and Singapore is no exception to such phenomenon. With the increased awareness of family planning and birth control devices and procedures, fertility rates may be minimized (Espenshade, Guzman, & Westoff, 2013). However, it is important that the live births that occur in a nation must be nurtured and reared for a safe health, away from morbidity and mortality. Crude birth is the number of live births per 1000 individuals, and decrease in live births will decrease the population growth. In this present study the trend analysis of fertility and population statistics was undertaken. This was done to evaluate whether there has been a decrease in the population or fertility over a span from 1970 to 2014.
Methodology
Demographical data and vital statistics were collected from the Singapore Population websites and World Population websites.

The statistical tests that were undertaken comprised of t-tests and correlation coefficient (Cox, 2006). The research questions and hypothesis that was evaluated in the study were:
Q1. Whether there is a change in the number of live births compared to residential births over a period of 1970 to 2014.
Respected Hypothesis: The null hypothesis contended that there is no significant difference between the mean live births with residential births over this period (p>0.05). On the other hand, the alternate hypothesis contends that there is significant difference between the mean live births with residential births over this period (p<0.05) (Harlow et al, 1997). An acceptance of null hypothesis would indicate that number of live births is a function of the residential births and immigrants and non-resident births would not account much in the growth of the Singapore Population (Lehman 1997).
Q2. Do the mean fertility rates vary across different age groups?
Respected hypothesis: The null hypothesis contended that there is no significant difference between the mean fertility rates across age groups (p>0.05). On the other hand, the alternate hypothesis contend that there is significant difference between the mean fertility rates across age groups (p<0.05). An acceptance of alternate hypothesis will indicate that certain age groups may have still higher fertility rates and birth control programs and awareness on family planning has to be oriented towards these age groups.
Q3. Whether various population parameters are related to fertility rates?
Respected hypothesis: The null hypothesis contended that there is no significant correlation between the mean fertility rates and different population parameters (p>0.05). On the other hand, the alternate hypothesis contend that there is significant correlation (positive or negative) between the mean fertility rates and different population parameters (p<0.05). An acceptance of alternate hypothesis will indicate that certain population parameters are strongly related to fertility rates that may have a socio-economic impact (Howell, 2002).
Results

Fig 1: Trend Comparison between total live births and residential live births

Fig 2: Comparison of average live births versus residential live births.

Fig 3: Trend Analysis between fertility in different age groups.

Fig 4: Shows trend in total fertility rates
Table 1: Correlation coefficients
Total fertility rates versus net reproduction rates 0.99 P<0.01(s)
Total fertility rates versus net reproduction rates 0.98 P<0.01(s)
Discussion & Conclusion
The trend shows that the total live births have decreased from 1990 till 2014 (Kline, 2004). However, in last three years the trend is on the rise. This reduction in live births from 1990 indicates a positive trend towards awareness of family planning. This trend is also encouraging from the point that the global population control is a real challenge and the world population is on the rise and considering 1970 to 2014; definitely, there ought to be rise in the Singapore population too. However, the trend indicated that Singapore could maintain its live births at the same level in a span of 45 years. This means people have become conscious and have taken adequate measures to implement family planning methods, to maintain the inherent live births at the constant level. It is also interesting that live births are highly matched to residential births, which indicates that the resident Singaporean population is accommodated in the job place compared to immigrants. This is an important perspective in the economy of Singapore. This means that the jobs would not be taken away by individuals who are not of the residential status. This was reflected from Fig2.
Further, Fig 2 reflected that live births were not significantly different from residential births and hence the Singapore population (residential status), must be made aware regarding birth control compared to migrant populations. This would be the situation or the possible roadmap if the population still shows rise as it has been witnessed from 2010 to 2014. The trend in the age group (15-24) reflected a drastic decrease in fertility rates (fig 3). However in the adult age group there was no significant change in the fertility rates during the phase of 1970 to 2014. Therefore, it can be speculated that young Singaporean population is aware of birth control and family planning, compared to their adult counterparts. Hence, awareness regarding family planning must be made on the age group from 24- 39. One should also ensure that whether the decrease in fertility rates are related to conscious birth control methods or reduction of fertility is occurring due to organic and psychological diseases. This would be an indicator of the level of stress the young Singaporean population has to sustain in their social life. Such indicators must be evaluated in future studies by regressing stress on fertility rates, to arrive at the conclusive opinion regarding the sustained decrease in fertility rates, in the age group of 15-24 years.
Apart from such issues, the socio-economic profile of the individuals in the adult age group (25-29 years) should also be evaluated. The interesting fact is, there is a significant increase in the fertility rates ( p<0.01), in the recent years compared to 1970-1990. It may indicate a boom in economy and GDP of Singapore, which may have urged the adult individuals to exhibit a higher fertility rate. Fig 4 and table 1 reflected that fertility rates were strongly positively correlated with net and gross reproduction rates (Kaye & Freedman, 2011). Therefore, conscious control of gross and net reproduction rates will help in minimizing population growth.
References
Audrey, Clark (1985). Longman Dictionary of Geography, Human and Physical. New York: Longman
Cox, D.R. (2006). Principles of Statistical Inference, Cambridge University Press
Douglas, Ian & Richard, Huggett (2007). Companion Encyclopedia of Geography. New York: Routledge
Espenshade, T. J, Guzman, J. C., & Westoff, C. F. (2003). “The surprising global variation in replacement fertility”. Population Research and Policy Review 22 (5/6), 575
Harlow, Lisa Lavoie; Stanley A. Mulaik; James H. & Steiger, E. (1997). What If There Were No Significance Tests?. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
 Howell, David (2002). Statistical Methods for Psychology (5 ed.). Duxbury. p. 94
. Lehmann, E. (1997). “Testing Statistical Hypotheses: The Story of a Book”. Statistical Science 12 (1): 48–52
Kaye, David H & Freedman, David A. (2011). “Reference Guide on Statistics”. Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3rd ed.). Eagan, MN Washington, D.C: West National Academies Press. p. 259. 
Kline, Rex (2004). Beyond Significance Testing: Reforming Data Analysis Methods in Behavioral Research. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association
Norwood, Carolette (2009). “Re-thinking the integration of women in population development initiatives” Development in Practice. 19.7,906 – 911